Overview of the latest farming yields during the GTEM-C

Overview of the latest farming yields during the GTEM-C
So you’re able to assess the new architectural changes in the newest agricultural change system, we build a catalog according to the matchmaking anywhere between uploading and exporting places just like the captured within covariance matrix

The modern kind of GTEM-C spends the GTAP 9.step 1 databases. I disaggregate the country into fourteen autonomous monetary nations paired by farming exchange. Regions from highest financial size and you may line of organization structures was modelled independently for the GTEM-C, and also the remainder of the globe are aggregated into places according in order to geographic proximity and you may climate similarity. Inside GTEM-C each area provides a real estate agent household. The latest 14 places included in this research was: Brazil (BR); China (CN); East Asia (EA); European countries (EU); India (IN); Latin The united states (LA); Middle eastern countries and you can North Africa (ME); The united states (NA); Oceania (OC); Russia and neighbor nations (RU); Southern China (SA); South east Asia (SE); Sub-Saharan Africa (SS) and the U . s . (US) (Pick Additional Guidance Desk A2). Your local aggregation utilized in this research invited us to work with more than 200 simulations (the new combinations out-of GGCMs, ESMs and you may RCPs), utilizing the high performing measuring facilities during the CSIRO in approximately a beneficial times. A greater disaggregation would-have-been too computationally costly. Here, we concentrate on the exchange of four big crops: grain, rice, rough grain, and you may oilseeds you to definitely compensate on sixty% of peoples calorie intake (Zhao et al., 2017); not, this new database included in GTEM-C accounts for 57 products that individuals aggregated toward 16 sectors (Look for Secondary Information Table A3).

The RCP8.5 emission scenario was used to calibrate GTEM-C’s business as usual case, as current CO2 emissions are tracking above RCP8.5 levels. A carbon price was endogenously calculated to force the model to match the lower RCP4.5 emissions trajectory. This ensured internal consistency between emissions scenarios and energy production (Cai and Arora, 2015). Climate change affects agricultural productivity, which leads to variations in agricultural outputs. Given the global demand for agricultural commodities, the market adjusts to balance the supply and demand for these commodities. This is achieved within GTEM-C by internal variations in prices of agricultural products, which determine the position and competitiveness of each region’s agricultural sector within the global market, thus shaping the patterns of global agricultural trade.

We use the AgMIP (Rosenzweig et al., 2014; Elliott et al., 2015) dataset to modify agricultural productivities in GTEM-C. The AgMIP database comprises simulations of projected agricultural production based on a combination of GGCM, ESMs and emission scenarios. Here we perturb GTEM-C agricultural production of coarse grains, oilseeds, rice and wheat (the full list of sector modelled in GTEM-C can be seen in Supplementary Information Table A3). The crop yield projections for these four commodities were obtained from seven AgMIP GGCMs accessed in ( EPIC, GEPIC, pDSSAT, LPJml, LPJ-GUESS, IMAGE-LEITAP and PEGASUS. The crop yield projections of the selected commodities are based on five ESMs: HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, GFDL-ESM2M and NorESM1-M (see Table 1 in Villoria et al., 2016). Our scenarios are based on two RCP trajectories, 4.5 and 8.5 and the very optimistic carbon mitigation scenario, RCP2.6 (van Vuuren et al., 2011) was not included in our study for two reasons: first, the AgMIP database contains a limited number of aisle ilk mesaj simulations for the four analysed commodities for RCP2.6 compare to RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. Second, it would be necessary to include into GTEM-C a negative carbon emissions technology in order to achieve the first Shared Socio-economic Pathway that corresponds to the RCP2.6’s CO2 emissions trajectory.

Analytical characterisation of exchange network

We represent the spectrum of the eigenvalues of this covariance matrix as the elements, sij of a diagonal 14 ? 14 matrix, where we have modelled 14 importing and exporting regions in our simulations. It is natural to interpret a rapidly converging spectrum as indicative of a trade network dominated by just a few importers and exporters while a flat spectrum of eigenvalues implies a network with many more equal actors. We capture this difference by the Shannon entropy of the eigenvalue spectrum and define the structural trade index as S. A smaller value of S represents a centralised network structure, where export/import flows are dominated by just few regions; larger values of S indicate a more distributed trading structure, where export/import flows are more uniformly distributed between all regions.

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